Documentation
Documentation
Guides for weather market traders — understand the data, the models, and the platform.
Why displayed temps differ from official records — the rounding problem explained.
Read guide →The path from real-time observation to official settlement — and why they can differ.
Read guide →How Kalshi hourly temperature markets settle — member stations, offsets and the minute that decides the hour.
Read guide →20 weather models from agencies worldwide — what they are and how they differ.
Read guide →How we measure forecast model accuracy — MAE, bias, and scoring modes explained.
Read guide →Markets by provider
Each venue's temperature markets, the stations they read and how they settle.
Kalshi
Daily markets settle on the official high or low from The Weather Company, then the NWS climate report (CLI). Hourly markets settle on the Kalshi Weather Index.
Polymarket
Settles on NOAA's station data, the routine hourly METAR reports for US cities. Taipei, Jinan and Zhengzhou settle on Weather Underground, which is also the fallback for NOAA-settled markets.
Coinbase
Lists Kalshi's markets, so each one settles by Kalshi's rules, the same as on Kalshi.
Robinhood
ForecastEx daily UH/UL contracts settle on Weather Underground daily observations. Hourly HRU contracts settle on the last report after T − 60 minutes and up to T, in whole °F.
IBKR
Lists the ForecastEx daily UH/UL contracts, settled on Weather Underground, plus Kalshi daily highs in 7 cities, settled by Kalshi's rules.