How Kalshi Hourly Temperature Markets Settle

The Kalshi Weather Index is a temperature for a metro area, published by Kalshi once a minute in Fahrenheit to two decimal places. It is a weighted average of several airport stations. Kalshi runs the index; the station readings are 1-minute airport observations supplied by Synoptic Data.

Kalshi publishes the index for 13 areas. 4 of them have an hourly market today: Miami (KXTEMPMIAH), New York City (KXTEMPNYCHS), Chicago (KXTEMPCHIHS), Los Angeles Coastal (KXTEMPLAXHS). See every city and its live page on Kalshi hourly temperature markets.

Each index has a list of member stations with equal base weights. A station that does not report is not counted as zero. The index is the weighted average of the stations that were accepted for that minute.

Every member station has an offset, and each city has a reference value, the weighted average of its stations' offsets. Before averaging, each reading has its station's offset subtracted and the city reference added back.

When every station reports, the offsets cancel out and the index equals the plain weighted average of the readings. They matter when a station is missing: every remaining reading has already been adjusted toward the city level, so a warm or cool station dropping out moves the index less.

Kalshi re-estimates the offsets weekly. Base weights do not change with a calibration. The calculation runs in Celsius and is converted to Fahrenheit and rounded to 0.01°F at the end.

• Official. A reading has to reach Kalshi within 5 minutes of its minute. Kalshi then publishes one value for that minute and never revises it. Only official minutes settle a market.
• Provisional. Before that, minuteTemp shows its own value computed from the readings received so far, about 2 minutes into the minute. It can still change.
• Degraded. An official minute where a station was missing, used a fallback reading or had a quality-control substitute. It still counts for settlement.
• Missing. If too few stations are accepted, the minute has no official value. The table above gives each city's minimum.

Fallback readings include the station's own METAR report, at most 75 minutes old.

• The market settles on the last official index minute at or before the top of the hour. The top-of-hour minute itself counts.
• If that minute is missing, the rule looks back to the newest official minute, at most 60 minutes earlier.
• Because a minute turns official 5 minutes after it ends, the settlement value is known about 5 minutes after the hour.
• If the hour has no official minute at all, Kalshi's market outcome review (Rule 7.1) applies.

• Strikes are one degree apart and read “75° or above”. That strike resolves Yes when the settlement value is 75.00° or higher.
• Each series has one open hour at a time, for the coming top of the hour. The strike ladder moves with the temperature from hour to hour.
• The hour in a ticker is Eastern time for every city. A Los Angeles market ending in 16 settles at 4 PM Eastern, which is 1 PM in Los Angeles.

Each hourly index page rebuilds the index every minute and shows the official value beside it, every member station's reading and its pull on the index, and an HRRR 15-minute forecast adjusted to the live index. Past hours are listed with the value we computed.

The 4 cities with a Kalshi hourly market (Miami, New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles Coastal) also show the live strike ladder, and each past hour is checked against Kalshi's final value for the market. The other 9 cities have no market, so they have no ladder and their hourly settlements are informational.

Kalshi's daily high and low markets work differently: one station per city. See Kalshi weather and temperature markets.