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San Francisco Bay Area Hourly Index

Index only · no Kalshi hourly market yet

Live San Francisco Bay Area Kalshi Weather Index every minute from 7 stations: provisional and official values, what the hour settles as.

How the San Francisco Bay Area hour settles

  • The hour settles on the last official index minute at or before the top of the hour, looking back at most 60 minutes. The top-of-hour minute itself counts.
  • Each minute becomes official 5 minutes after it ends and is never revised, so the settle is determined about 5 minutes after the hour.
  • Until then we show a provisional value computed from the readings received so far. It can still change; only official minutes settle.
  • Degraded official minutes still count: a station used its METAR fallback or a QC substitute reading, or a station was excluded and the index was computed from the others. A minute is missing unless at least 6 of 7 stations and 80% of the base weight (our default; Kalshi hasn't published this city's rule) report.
  • Fallback readings are the station's own METAR, at most 75 minutes old. If no official minute exists in the hour, Kalshi's market outcome review (Rule 7.1) applies.

Index only: Kalshi publishes this index but has no hourly market on it yet. Our hourly settlements are informational because Kalshi has not published this city's quorum rule.

Member stations

  • KSFO San Francisco International
  • KOAK Oakland International
  • KSJC San Jose International
  • KHWD Hayward Executive
  • KCCR Buchanan Field, Concord
  • KLVK Livermore Municipal
  • KAPC Napa County

Full method: how Kalshi hourly temperature markets settle.

San Francisco Bay Area hourly index FAQ

Which stations make up the San Francisco Bay Area index?
7 equally weighted stations: San Francisco International (KSFO), Oakland International (KOAK), San Jose International (KSJC), Hayward Executive (KHWD), Buchanan Field, Concord (KCCR), Livermore Municipal (KLVK), Napa County (KAPC). Each reading is adjusted by a station offset that Kalshi re-estimates weekly.
How does the San Francisco Bay Area hourly market settle?
Kalshi has no hourly market on the San Francisco Bay Area index yet. We still compute each hour's settle the same way, the last official minute at or before the top of the hour, and label it informational.
What makes a minute official, provisional or missing?
We show a provisional value about 2 minutes into each minute from the readings received so far. Kalshi publishes the official value 5 minutes after the minute if at least 6 of 7 stations and 80% of the base weight (our default; Kalshi hasn't published this city's rule) report; otherwise the minute is missing. A degraded official minute used a fallback or substitute reading but still counts for settlement.