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Minneapolis-St. Paul Hourly Index

Index only · no Kalshi hourly market yet

Live Minneapolis-St. Paul Kalshi Weather Index every minute from 4 stations: provisional and official values, what the hour settles as.

How the Minneapolis-St. Paul hour settles

  • The hour settles on the last official index minute at or before the top of the hour, looking back at most 60 minutes. The top-of-hour minute itself counts.
  • Each minute becomes official 5 minutes after it ends and is never revised, so the settle is determined about 5 minutes after the hour.
  • Until then we show a provisional value computed from the readings received so far. It can still change; only official minutes settle.
  • Degraded official minutes still count: a station used its METAR fallback or a QC substitute reading, or a station was excluded and the index was computed from the others. A minute is missing unless at least 3 of 4 stations and 80% of the base weight (our default; Kalshi hasn't published this city's rule) report.
  • Fallback readings are the station's own METAR, at most 75 minutes old. If no official minute exists in the hour, Kalshi's market outcome review (Rule 7.1) applies.

Index only: Kalshi publishes this index but has no hourly market on it yet. Our hourly settlements are informational because Kalshi has not published this city's quorum rule.

Member stations

  • KMSP Minneapolis-Saint Paul International
  • KMIC Crystal
  • KSTP St. Paul Downtown Holman Field
  • KFCM Flying Cloud, Eden Prairie

Full method: how Kalshi hourly temperature markets settle.

Minneapolis-St. Paul hourly index FAQ

Which stations make up the Minneapolis-St. Paul index?
4 equally weighted stations: Minneapolis-Saint Paul International (KMSP), Crystal (KMIC), St. Paul Downtown Holman Field (KSTP), Flying Cloud, Eden Prairie (KFCM). Each reading is adjusted by a station offset that Kalshi re-estimates weekly.
How does the Minneapolis-St. Paul hourly market settle?
Kalshi has no hourly market on the Minneapolis-St. Paul index yet. We still compute each hour's settle the same way, the last official minute at or before the top of the hour, and label it informational.
What makes a minute official, provisional or missing?
We show a provisional value about 2 minutes into each minute from the readings received so far. Kalshi publishes the official value 5 minutes after the minute if at least 3 of 4 stations and 80% of the base weight (our default; Kalshi hasn't published this city's rule) report; otherwise the minute is missing. A degraded official minute used a fallback or substitute reading but still counts for settlement.