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Chicago Hourly Index

Kalshi hourly · KXTEMPCHIHS

Live Chicago Kalshi Weather Index every minute from 5 stations: provisional and official values, what the hour settles as, the KXTEMPCHIHS strike ladder and our settle vs Kalshi's.

How the Chicago hour settles

  • The hour settles on the last official index minute at or before the top of the hour, looking back at most 60 minutes. The top-of-hour minute itself counts.
  • Each minute becomes official 5 minutes after it ends and is never revised, so the settle is determined about 5 minutes after the hour.
  • Until then we show a provisional value computed from the readings received so far. It can still change; only official minutes settle.
  • Degraded official minutes still count: a station used its METAR fallback or a QC substitute reading, or a station was excluded and the index was computed from the others. A minute is missing unless at least 4 of 5 stations and 80% of the base weight report.
  • Fallback readings are the station's own METAR, at most 75 minutes old. If no official minute exists in the hour, Kalshi's market outcome review (Rule 7.1) applies.

Member stations

  • KMDW Chicago Midway International
  • KORD Chicago O'Hare International
  • KPWK Chicago Executive
  • KDPA DuPage
  • KARR Aurora Municipal

Full method: how Kalshi hourly temperature markets settle.

Chicago hourly index FAQ

Which stations make up the Chicago index?
5 equally weighted stations: Chicago Midway International (KMDW), Chicago O'Hare International (KORD), Chicago Executive (KPWK), DuPage (KDPA), Aurora Municipal (KARR). Each reading is adjusted by a station offset that Kalshi re-estimates weekly.
How does the Chicago hourly market settle?
The KXTEMPCHIHS market settles on the last official index minute at or before the top of the hour, looking back at most 60 minutes. Kalshi makes each minute official 5 minutes after it ends and never revises it, so the settle is known about 5 minutes after the hour.
What makes a minute official, provisional or missing?
We show a provisional value about 2 minutes into each minute from the readings received so far. Kalshi publishes the official value 5 minutes after the minute if at least 4 of 5 stations and 80% of the base weight report; otherwise the minute is missing. A degraded official minute used a fallback or substitute reading but still counts for settlement.